Elon Musk talks about when a mission to Mars may begin

The well-known businessman and head of the company SpaceX Ilon Musk once again shared his views on the project to explore Mars. He plans to organize the first manned flight to the planet in 2026. The entrepreneur intends to turn Earthlings into a multi-planetary species through the creation of a Martian colony.

Musk plans to achieve his goal as soon as possible. This is to ensure that the colony begins to develop sustainably before the Earth “becomes too hot for life” 500 million years later.

These statements were made during an appearance on the L. Friedman podcast. Musk’s company is developing a Starship rocket to transport humans to Mars. However, a problem has recently emerged in the implementation of the Martian project. Officials at the US Federal Aviation Administration have postponed the deadline for providing an environmental assessment of the Starship orbital test until at least February 28, 2022. That means that tests of the rocket will not begin until March this year at the earliest.

The journey to the red planet

There is still a lot of work to be done before the arrival on the Red Planet, as Musk only has a prototype rocket so far. It has not yet been tested in place with the Heavy Lift booster, which is needed to overcome Earth’s gravitational force. According to the entrepreneur, the likely delays are due to the fact that it is basic engineering and Starship is the most technically complex and advanced rocket.

In May 2021, the fifth high-altitude flight was completed with Starship successfully landing on the launch pad. Further tests are planned for orbital flight together with the Heavy Lift booster with a landing in the ocean. Then the ship will be sent to the moon – this flight should be completed in 2023. In 2024, the plan is to send a crewless ship to the Red Planet to return.

Given the state of current technology, the duration of a flight to Mars is from six months, but Musk believes that this time can be reduced to a month. At the same time, the flights will become available in 2 years, which is due to the peculiarities of the orbits of Mars and Earth.

What needs to be done?

To achieve each of his goals, the entrepreneur needs to reduce the cost of a Martian flight by switching to reusable rockets only. As Musk explained, there is a certain price per tonne for the surface of the Red Planet, where a self-sufficient city can be erected and more cannot be afforded. At present, even for $1 trillion it is impossible to buy a ticket and go to Mars.

Musk does not lose optimism, even though there are technical problems. He is confident that the window for human colonization of Mars will be fully open and that a sustainable colony must be established as early as possible. This settlement will be very small, hazardous, and will be a frontier environment as its inhabitants begin to produce fuel, energy, and food.

Faster than NASA

According to the entrepreneur, even in the worst-case scenario, his ship would be able to reach Mars before NASA, which plans to get there by 2033. At the same time Musk, naming 2026 as the time of landing on the Red Planet remains a realist. He understands that unforeseen technical problems could push back the timeline. If something goes wrong, the manned mission would be pushed back to 2031.

Several technical advances will need to be made before 2026. Among them is turning Starship into a reusable spacecraft, enabling it to reach orbit for refueling and preparing for an extended mission. Highly efficient, inexpensive propellant will be needed. In addition, fuel production must be established by colonists on Mars.